Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:18:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F7 0xf719…a71d other 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate13%14W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$10
politics 28% −$6
sports 16% +$38
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 58 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 104 +5.2% -4.8% 13% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 9% -9.4%
10% -13.9% 7% -18.1%
15% -22.3% 4% -26.0%
20% -29.9% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×7.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses14 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage134d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $526 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $148 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $205 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $166 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $145 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 18 $204 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $201 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $209 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $148 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $176 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $167 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $144 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $195 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $359 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $173 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $146 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $194 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $199 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $161 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $200 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $150 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $401 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $145 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $370 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 11 $402 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $163 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $318 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 08 $176 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $188 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $172 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $180 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $201 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $386 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $159 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $341 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $201 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $158 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 03 $146 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 03 $213 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $218 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $169 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 01 $127 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 2d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 3d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 5d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 15d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 17d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 23d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 27d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $156 29d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $156 30d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $148 30d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $148 39d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $205 65d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $205 66d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $166 66d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $166 66d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $145 66d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $145 66d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $204 66d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $204 67d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $201 67d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $201 67d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $209 67d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 67d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $148 67d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $148 67d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $176 67d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $176 68d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $167 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.02 · official $34.02 (match) · 291 history records