Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:30:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F7 0xf720…4599 other 514 markets active 2h ago coverage 478d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ Covers last 477d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,281 (-1%) realized −$2,075 · open −$5,206
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate49%231W / 238L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$1,320per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$97est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$12,917now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 478d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$9,361
politics 23% +$2,856
world 12% −$9,861
sports 9% +$2,940
culture 3% −$168
crypto 1% +$1,777
weather 0% −$80
economics 0% −$378
finance 0% +$143
tech 0% +$338
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +55.5% +40.7% 100% 100% +36.8%
≤30d 76 +12.3% +1.6% 63% 37% -14.7%
≤90d 85 +9.1% -1.3% 62% 35% -14.3%
all 469 +3.5% -6.3% 49% 28% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 28% -7.6%
10% -15.3% 22% -16.5%
15% -23.5% 19% -24.5%
20% -31.0% 16% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$578) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$338 vs −$277 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$12,917
Realized−$2,075
Unrealized−$5,206
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses231 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions45
Markets (closed)469 / 514
History coverage478d ⚠
Avg bet$1,320
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 469 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 94¢ 97¢ $2,555 $2,614 +$59 (+2%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $1,920 $2,192 +$272 (+14%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 98¢ $1,000 $1,053 +$53 (+5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 87¢ $1,000 $994 −$6 (-1%)
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? Yes 12¢ 3¢ $3,720 $913 −$2,807 (-75%)
Will France be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? Yes 37¢ 28¢ $1,110 $855 −$255 (-23%)
Will Spain be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? Yes 40¢ 17¢ $1,200 $510 −$690 (-57%)
Will England be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? Yes 41¢ 16¢ $1,318 $499 −$819 (-62%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? No 83¢ 78¢ $433 $407 −$26 (-6%)
Will Portugal be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? Yes 25¢ 10¢ $750 $315 −$435 (-58%)
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $284 $271 −$13 (-5%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 40¢ $358 $253 −$105 (-29%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $289 $192 −$97 (-34%)
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? No 89¢ 86¢ $192 $183 −$9 (-4%)
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? Yes 36¢ 31¢ $210 $183 −$27 (-13%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 26¢ $100 $165 +$65 (+65%)
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $170 $151 −$19 (-11%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? No 61¢ 30¢ $300 $150 −$150 (-50%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 32¢ $80 $134 +$54 (+68%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 78¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $80 $99 +$19 (+23%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $87 $90 +$4 (+4%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 63¢ 17¢ $250 $68 −$182 (-73%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $54 $62 +$7 (+14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $52 $61 +$10 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 115 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $60 +$19 +32%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $117 +$150 +128%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 +$19 +18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 17 $606 +$264 +44%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $18,415 −$18,296 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $8,704 +$1,702 +20%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $122 −$120 -98%
Will Fiji win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $167 −$167 -100%
Will Vanuatu win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $221 −$220 -100%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $1,932 +$1,267 +66%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1,004 +$132 +13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $6,943 +$1,782 +26%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $867 −$594 -68%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $502 +$94 +19%
Will Tochigi SC vs. Giravanz Kitakyūshū end in a draw? Jun 07 $2,015 +$6 +0%
Will FC Ryūkyū win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $109 −$106 -97%
Will Fukushima United FC win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $216 −$210 -97%
Will Tochigi SC win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $7,214 −$7,169 -99%
Will Zweigen Kanazawa win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $7,458 +$89 +1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $185 +$156 +84%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 07 $222 +$487 +220%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $3,903 +$115 +3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $11,901 +$120 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 06 $327 −$320 -98%
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2,205 +$198 +9%
Will FC Machida Zelvia vs. Nagoya Grampus end in a draw? Jun 06 $1,101 +$22 +2%
Will FC Gifu win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Gainare Tottori win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Nara Club win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2,208 +$111 +5%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $6,813 +$436 +6%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $20,006 +$196 +1%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $9,336 +$195 +2%
Will Trump say "Cocaine" in June? Jun 06 $26 +$13 +49%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $8,000 +$11 +0%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $610 +$1 +0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 04 $10,937 +$1,521 +14%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $505 +$142 +28%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 3? Jun 03 $38 +$168 +439%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 3? Jun 03 $43 −$37 -85%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 3? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 03 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $22,557 +$2,139 +10%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $600 +$12 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $20,939 +$1,355 +6%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Canada vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 02 $10 −$7 -64%
Will a hurricane form by May 31? Jun 02 $1,269 +$319 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 36¢ $300 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $100 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 33¢ $1,500 1h
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 75¢ $3,320 12d
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 78¢ $13,498 12d
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,596 12d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 46¢ $10 12d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 45¢ $10 12d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 50¢ $102 12d
Will Fiji win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 12d
Will Fiji win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 12d
Will Fiji win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 67¢ $11 12d
Will Fiji win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 67¢ $11 12d
Will Fiji win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 12d
Will Fiji win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 12d
Will Fiji win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 67¢ $11 12d
Will Fiji win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 67¢ $36 12d
Will Fiji win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 12d
Will Fiji win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 12d
Will Fiji win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 12d
Will Fiji win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 12d
Will Fiji win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 12d
Will Fiji win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 12d
Will Fiji win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 12d
Will Fiji win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 12d
Will Fiji win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 12d
Will Fiji win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 12d
Will Fiji win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 12d
Will Fiji win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,916.60 · official $12,917.06 (match) · 3500 history records