Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:10:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf722…4e1e other 94 markets active 0h ago coverage 617d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$202 (-6%) realized −$200 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate24%21W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$139
crypto 15% +$17
finance 13% −$72
world 5% −$12
sports 5% +$12
weather 4% −$6
culture 2% −$25
politics 0% $0
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.8% -10.3% 4% 4% -12.6%
≤30d 31 -9.3% -17.9% 10% 10% -20.1%
≤90d 38 -7.9% -16.6% 11% 8% -15.8%
all 89 -9.3% -17.9% 24% 19% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 19% -15.5%
10% -25.8% 18% -23.6%
15% -32.9% 15% -31.0%
20% -39.5% 13% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$8 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

617d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$200
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses21 / 68
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)89 / 94
History coverage617d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $24 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$2 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 15 $34 $0 -0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $116 −$11 -9%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $4 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Morocco go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 14 $29 −$16 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $27 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $35 −$1 -2%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $37 $0 -1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -7%
Will Ezri Konsa be in England's Starting 11? Jun 13 $53 −$5 -9%
Will Luiz Henrique be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 13 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Jude Bellingham win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Will Iran go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 13 $27 $0 -2%
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 13 $36 −$1 -3%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $53 +$42 +79%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $47 −$46 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 20? May 20 $398 −$71 -18%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $101 −$91 -90%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31? May 19 $44 −$5 -12%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $100 +$73 +73%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k? May 15 $50 −$1 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of May 11 2026? May 14 $49 −$1 -2%
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15?? May 14 $9 $0 -1%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 14 $5 $0 -7%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 06 $359 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 05 $366 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 5? May 05 $99 −$1 -1%
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 07 $6 −$4 -69%
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 07 $11 −$5 -49%
Over $2M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 24 $15 +$4 +24%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 23 $50 +$2 +4%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 23 $100 −$3 -3%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Dec 23 $71 $0 +0%
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 20 $10 +$6 +61%
Over $10M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m Dec 11 $14 −$14 -100%
HumidiFi FDV above $300M one day after launch? Dec 09 $5 −$1 -14%
HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch? Dec 09 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 49¢ $24 4m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 49¢ $24 5m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 44¢ $12 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $24 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $24 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $10 15h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $105 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $38 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $38 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $40 18h
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 32¢ $4 20h
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 33¢ $4 20h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? SELL No 12¢ $1 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 14¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 56¢ $28 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 57¢ $28 21h
Will Morocco go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL No 22¢ $13 23h
Will Morocco go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 48¢ $10 23h
Will Morocco go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 48¢ $10 23h
Will Morocco go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 48¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? SELL No 62¢ $26 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? SELL No 63¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 62¢ $27 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.27 · official $46.27 (match) · 237 history records