Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:12:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf727…f06c other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$106 (-15%) realized −$116 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$46
sports 17% −$69
crypto 2% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-37.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -30.6% -37.2% 36% 36% -30.6%
≤30d 14 -30.6% -37.2% 36% 36% -30.6%
≤90d 14 -30.6% -37.2% 36% 36% -30.6%
all 14 -30.6% -37.2% 36% 36% -30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.2% 36% -30.6%
10% -43.2% 36% -37.2%
15% -48.7% 21% -43.3%
20% -53.7% 7% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$22 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage52d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 75¢ 81¢ $119 $130 +$10 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $150 −$1 -1%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $82 −$33 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$48 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 -8%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 −$35 -87%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 +$27 +34%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $64 −$64 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 +$18 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$13 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $13 +$3 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 +$4 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $120 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 94¢ $111 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 84¢ $99 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $42 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $39 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $41 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 49¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 12h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 18h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 18h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 21h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 21h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $41 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $81 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $64 38h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $46 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 45h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $13 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $9 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.72 · official $129.74 (match) · 32 history records