Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:10:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf731…91ab crypto 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$385 (+17%) realized +$416 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate55%56W / 45L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$516
7 days+$535
14 days+$454
30 days+$454
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% −$28
world 23% +$532
other 23% +$25
sports 10% −$70
weather 6% −$84
politics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -6.1% -15.1% 53% 41% +54.1%
≤30d 41 -14.0% -22.2% 51% 41% +28.2%
≤90d 101 -5.2% -14.2% 55% 41% +9.5%
all 101 -5.2% -14.2% 55% 41% +9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 41% +9.5%
10% -22.4% 34% -1.0%
15% -29.9% 26% -10.6%
20% -36.8% 17% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$260
Realized+$416
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses56 / 45
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions21
Markets (closed)101 / 123
History coverage59d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 62¢ 73¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+19%)
Will 5+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 24¢ $25 $51 +$26 (+102%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 80¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+40%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 26? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Republicans win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 52¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 80¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+49%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 29¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Yes 28¢ 18¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 38°C or higher on June 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 25? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 25? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 25? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $62 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 26? Jun 25 $11 −$7 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 26? Jun 25 $10 +$1 +9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 24 $515 +$532 +103%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$2 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $22 +$10 +44%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$18 +340%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $25 +$12 +46%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$16 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +53%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $31 +$14 +44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$6 +60%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$7 +33%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$6 +23%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$12 +78%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +273%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 $0 +18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 04 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 04 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 04 $30 +$2 +5%
Will Clavicular cry on stream by May 1, 2026 May 02 $30 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 30 $3 +$1 +46%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $8 −$5 -61%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 29 $5 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $16 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 26? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 26? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 26? SELL Yes 35¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 26? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 2h
Will 5+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA BUY Yes 12¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 26? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 22h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 26? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 25? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 22h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 38°C or higher on June 25 BUY Yes 1¢ $11 22h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 25? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 22h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 25? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 22h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 22h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 25? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 22h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 38°C or higher on June 25 BUY Yes 1¢ $11 22h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1,048 22h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 42h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 42h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 42h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 45h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.45 · official $261.90 (match) · 1521 history records