Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:25:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf733…b06f other 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 398d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%6W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$8
politics 29% −$3
sports 15% −$2
culture 4% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
world 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 80 -6.3% -15.2% 8% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -23.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -30.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -37.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

398d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses6 / 74
Open positions2
Markets (closed)80 / 82
History coverage398d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $45 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 08 $44 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 05 $46 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 27 $45 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 05 $46 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $46 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 28 $46 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $196 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 24 $1 $0 -50%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 23 $94 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $98 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 18 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 13 $95 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 10 $49 −$1 -1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 03 $47 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Jan 01 $46 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 28 $47 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 25 $48 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 22? Dec 23 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 21 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 11 $99 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 03 $49 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 01 $1 $0 -20%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 29 $46 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Nov 27 $46 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $48 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out? Nov 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 01 $49 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 29 $52 $0 -0%
Will Rudy Giuliani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 22 $1 $0 -50%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Oct 13 $99 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 08 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $50 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 25 $51 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 28h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 28h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 7d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 10d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 23d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $44 105d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $44 107d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $46 112d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $45 114d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $45 119d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 129d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 134d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $46 137d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $46 141d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 142d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $46 142d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $46 143d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $46 145d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $46 146d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 147d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $47 149d
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 149d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $47 149d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $47 150d
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 150d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.28 · official $1.28 (match) · 323 history records