Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:39:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F7 0xf737…37aa crypto 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 287d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$399 (-1%) realized −$396 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%52W / 49L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$401now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$211
7 days+$211
14 days+$211
30 days+$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% +$2,729
crypto 18% −$2,782
tech 13% −$585
other 4% +$121
sports 1% +$201
world 0% −$28
culture 0% −$59
finance 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +31.9% +19.3% 100% 100% +20.2%
≤30d 2 +31.9% +19.3% 100% 100% +20.2%
≤90d 33 -80.8% -82.6% 9% 9% -53.6%
all 101 -17.6% -25.5% 51% 42% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 42% -10.9%
10% -32.6% 33% -19.4%
15% -39.1% 28% -27.2%
20% -45.1% 17% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +16% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$102 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

287d coverage
Net worth$401
Realized−$396
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses52 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)101 / 104
History coverage287d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $353 +$146 +41%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $289 +$64 +22%
Will Forhad Hussain win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral elec May 08 $145 +$65 +45%
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral elec May 05 $118 −$117 -99%
Will Jason Perry win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral electi May 05 $1 $0 -44%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Apr 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of March 20 Mar 30 $46 −$43 -94%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of March 20 Mar 30 $37 −$5 -15%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,000 on the final trading day of March 20 Mar 26 $45 −$38 -84%
Solana Up or Down - December 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Mar 24 $35 −$32 -92%
Will End of Beginning - Djo be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Mar 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 7, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Mar 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Mar 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Mar 23 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Mar 23 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 29? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Mar 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January Mar 23 $196 −$137 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 23 $15 −$11 -76%
Will Google have the second best AI model on September 30? Mar 23 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on November 4? Mar 23 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model on September 30? Mar 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Mar 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on February 2? Mar 23 $58 −$58 -100%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model on September 30? Mar 23 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $190 on October 17? Mar 23 $558 −$558 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 28? Feb 25 $20 −$3 -16%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 26? Feb 25 $396 +$175 +44%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 25? Feb 25 $244 +$198 +82%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on February 5? Jan 30 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on January 31? Jan 30 $30 −$21 -70%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on January 30? Jan 30 $63 −$58 -91%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 30? Jan 29 $25 +$10 +40%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 30? Jan 29 $20 +$11 +57%
Will I Just Might - Bruno Mars be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Jan 27 $16 −$11 -71%
Will Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley be the #1 song on US Spotify this w Jan 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Jan 25 $313 +$19 +6%
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January Jan 24 $6 +$16 +259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jan 23 $5 −$4 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 23 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jan 22 $4 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jan 17 $11 −$8 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jan 17 $35 −$13 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 43m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 47m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 50m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 50m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $403 54m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $499 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $353 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $353 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $7 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $271 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 8h
Will Forhad Hussain win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral elec BUY Yes 65¢ $100 43d
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral elec BUY Yes 74¢ $96 43d
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral elec BUY Yes 74¢ $10 43d
Will Jason Perry win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral electi SELL Yes 19¢ $1 43d
Will Forhad Hussain win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral elec BUY Yes 75¢ $20 44d
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral elec BUY Yes 55¢ $5 44d
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral elec BUY Yes 55¢ $5 44d
Will Jason Perry win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral electi BUY Yes 32¢ $1 44d
Will Forhad Hussain win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral elec BUY Yes 75¢ $25 44d
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral elec BUY Yes 55¢ $2 44d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of March 20 SELL Yes 1¢ $3 78d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of March 20 SELL Yes 37¢ $32 78d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? BUY No 0¢ $5 83d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? BUY No 0¢ $2 83d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,000 on the final trading day of March 20 SELL Yes 1¢ $7 83d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of March 20 BUY Yes 40¢ $17 84d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,000 on the final trading day of March 20 BUY Yes 9¢ $1 84d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of March 20 BUY Yes 40¢ $10 84d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of March 20 BUY Yes 17¢ $36 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $401.23 · official $401.23 (match) · 462 history records