Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:43:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F7 0xf738…a5df crypto 1332 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$342 (-1%) realized −$342 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate95%1272W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$99
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$15
other 0% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1138 +0.2% -9.3% 99% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 1264 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 1332 -1.5% -10.9% 95% 2% -9.7%
all 1332 -1.5% -10.9% 95% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 2% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 2% -18.4%
15% -27.2% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$342
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1272 / 60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1332 / 1332
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1332 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $79 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $79 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $79 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $79 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $79 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $79 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $79 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $44 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records