Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:30:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf739…3d37 crypto 706 markets active 1h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$292 (-2%) realized −$252 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%289W / 416L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$291
14 days+$294
30 days+$294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$526
sports 31% +$295
world 14% −$73
other 3% −$58
tech 2% −$13
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +33.2% +20.5% 49% 44% +8.2%
≤30d 48 +31.4% +18.9% 50% 46% +7.8%
≤90d 89 +5.3% -4.7% 42% 35% -5.0%
all 705 -10.2% -18.8% 41% 38% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 38% -11.0%
10% -26.5% 32% -19.5%
15% -33.6% 29% -27.3%
20% -40.1% 24% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$252
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses289 / 416
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)705 / 706
History coverage221d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 705 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $51 −$11 -22%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 +$47 +650%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $18 $0 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$15 +74%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$52 +103%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 −$11 -53%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 −$42 -68%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $51 +$5 +9%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $81 +$14 +17%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$10 -20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$44 +43%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$2 -4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$5 -10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $56 −$45 -80%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $46 +$48 +105%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $71 −$51 -72%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $61 −$9 -14%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $33 +$111 +340%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 +$8 +24%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 +$35 +114%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$18 +181%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $41 +$31 +77%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$35 +230%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$34 +164%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 −$14 -34%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $48 +$38 +81%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $45 +$51 +114%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$8 -15%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 +$92 +226%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $43 +$68 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $38 +$55 +146%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $46 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +51%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $30 −$30 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $30 +$21 +69%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 22 $12 −$8 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $40 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 41¢ $40 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $51 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 13¢ $7 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 51¢ $18 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $18 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $35 8h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 99¢ $103 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 8h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $51 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $30 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 18¢ $9 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 53¢ $18 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $20 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $61 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 82¢ $31 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 53¢ $20 27h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 84¢ $41 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $30 27h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 41¢ $20 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 28¢ $25 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $31 28h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Iraq 27¢ $17 28h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 32¢ $20 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $41 29h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $51 29h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Iraq 40¢ $38 29h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $41 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 2717 history records