Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:37:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F7 0xf73b…c326 sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$974 (+47%) realized +$1,012 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate61%20W / 13L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$266
14 days+$310
30 days+$310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$973
other 29% −$16
crypto 20% +$21
world 2% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +27.6% +15.5% 60% 60% +53.0%
≤30d 7 +23.5% +11.7% 57% 57% +51.9%
≤90d 9 +16.0% +4.9% 56% 56% +41.5%
all 33 +6.6% -3.5% 61% 45% +35.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 45% +35.1%
10% -12.8% 39% +22.2%
15% -21.2% 36% +10.4%
20% -28.9% 33% -0.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$27 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.76 per $1 lost it wins $3.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$1,012
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses20 / 13
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage177d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 31¢ 19¢ $100 $62 −$38 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $81 +$42 +52%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $122 +$85 +70%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 +$220 +216%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$64 +126%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22? Apr 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $97 +$77 +79%
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Mar 22 $96 +$150 +156%
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Mar 22 $49 +$26 +54%
Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela Mar 18 $95 +$285 +300%
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Mar 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Mar 17 $97 +$67 +69%
Final Stage: Italy vs. Venezuela Mar 17 $145 +$69 +48%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA Mar 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela Mar 15 $86 +$134 +156%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 125 Mar 02 $19 −$19 -100%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Feb 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will "NUEVAYOL" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? Feb 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will "LA MUDANZA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will "Callaita" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 12 $5 −$5 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. FC København: O/U 1.5 Feb 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $110 +$15 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 12? Jan 28 $100 +$1 +1%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $48 +$52 +108%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Jan 11 $20 +$7 +35%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 2? Jan 03 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 2? Jan 03 $106 +$9 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 2? Jan 02 $41 +$9 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 31? Jan 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 30? Dec 31 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 31¢ $103 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $81 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $122 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $322 4d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $102 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 10d
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 10d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 26¢ $31 10d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $115 10d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $51 10d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $97 72d
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $246 95d
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $75 95d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $48 95d
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 65¢ $49 95d
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $96 95d
Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela SELL Venezuela 100¢ $380 99d
Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela BUY Venezuela 25¢ $95 99d
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $165 100d
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $48 100d
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $97 100d
Final Stage: Italy vs. Venezuela SELL Venezuela 100¢ $117 100d
Final Stage: Italy vs. Venezuela SELL Italy 58¢ $97 100d
Final Stage: Italy vs. Venezuela BUY Venezuela 41¢ $48 100d
Final Stage: Italy vs. Venezuela BUY Italy 57¢ $97 100d
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA BUY Dominican Rep. 46¢ $48 102d
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela SELL Venezuela 100¢ $219 102d
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela BUY Venezuela 39¢ $86 103d
Will "LA MUDANZA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? BUY Yes 9¢ $19 137d
Will "LA MUDANZA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.18 · official $72.89 · 77 history records