Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:41:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F7 0xf73c…ae8c other 43 markets active 5h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+2%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%15W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$14
14 days+$12
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$2
crypto 17% −$2
sports 11% +$8
politics 4% −$2
world 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +23.9% +12.1% 69% 69% +8.7%
≤30d 18 +8.5% -1.8% 56% 56% -0.6%
≤90d 28 -0.8% -10.2% 54% 50% -5.5%
all 28 -0.8% -10.2% 54% 50% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 50% -5.5%
10% -18.8% 43% -14.6%
15% -26.6% 32% -22.8%
20% -33.8% 21% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses15 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)28 / 43
History coverage67d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 54¢ 48¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-10%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 57¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$3 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +306%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -43%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -98%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +104%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? May 31 $3 −$3 -99%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? May 27 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1 $0 -9%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? May 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? May 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 20 $1 $0 +11%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -56%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Trump say "Biden" during Fox interview on Wednesday? Apr 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during F Apr 15 $1 $0 +33%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $1 +$2 +177%
Military action against Iran ends on April 30, 2026? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $1 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $6 29h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 80¢ $13 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 81¢ $13 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 62¢ $10 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.51 · official $110.51 (match) · 86 history records