Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:39:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F7 0xf73c…3c9f sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-2%) realized +$0 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$39
14 days+$71
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$84
other 17% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +55.3% +40.5% 50% 50% +54.7%
≤30d 19 +25.1% +13.2% 42% 42% +5.3%
≤90d 19 +25.1% +13.2% 42% 42% +5.3%
all 19 +25.1% +13.2% 42% 42% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.2% 42% +5.3%
10% +2.4% 37% -4.8%
15% -7.5% 37% -14.0%
20% -16.6% 37% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$14 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage22d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 31¢ 20¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $15 +$22 +145%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $15 +$42 +276%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $12 +$88 +712%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $12 +$16 +129%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $12 +$9 +73%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $12 −$9 -76%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $12 +$8 +67%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $39 −$26 -67%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $29 +$4 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 31¢ $15 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $58 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $15 5h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 26¢ $15 6h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $15 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $15 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 41¢ $12 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $12 8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $15 8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $15 8d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 8d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $12 8d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $3 9d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $12 9d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $12 9d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $12 10d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $12 10d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 22d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 66¢ $33 22d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $29 22d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.44 · official $10.40 (match) · 30 history records