Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:00:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf73f…ee53 weather 347 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (238 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,600 (+3%) realized +$6,664 · open −$2,064
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate21%133W / 505L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$380per market
Trades / day237.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$15,845now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$8,988
weather 19% −$25
politics 8% $0
other 3% −$67
tech 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (238 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-57.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 437 -80.3% -82.1% 6% 5% -10.7%
≤30d 638 -52.9% -57.4% 21% 16% -9.8%
≤90d 638 -52.9% -57.4% 21% 16% -9.8%
all 638 -52.9% -57.4% 21% 16% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover237.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -57.4% 16% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -61.5% 12% -18.5%
15% -65.2% 10% -26.3%
20% -68.6% 7% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -86% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$33 · ×3.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$15,845
Realized+$6,664
Unrealized−$2,064
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses133 / 505
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions28
Markets (closed)638 / 347
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$380
Trades / day237.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 638 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 65¢ 64¢ $11,148 $10,908 −$240 (-2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 60¢ 86¢ $1,800 $2,580 +$780 (+43%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? Yes 85¢ 99¢ $488 $567 +$79 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21? No 97¢ 100¢ $432 $443 +$11 (+3%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $1,312 $416 −$896 (-68%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22? No 86¢ 96¢ $219 $245 +$25 (+12%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $354 $242 −$112 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? Yes 13¢ 28¢ $59 $128 +$70 (+119%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $246 $87 −$159 (-65%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 21? No 86¢ 86¢ $65 $66 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? No 65¢ 66¢ $51 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $26 $32 +$6 (+21%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No 55¢ 2¢ $801 $28 −$773 (-96%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 40¢ 2¢ $458 $21 −$437 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 21? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 21? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-60%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 21? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $60 $5 −$55 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 21? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 20? No 54¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+85%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $243 $1 −$242 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 21? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 20? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-98%)
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 20? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C or below on June 22? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 472 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on May 22? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 14? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 15? Jun 21 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on May 25? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 16? Jun 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 16? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on May 12? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 23? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on May 28? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 29? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 14? Jun 21 $36 −$41 -116%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on May 1? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 1? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 17? Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 6? Jun 21 $3 −$2 -89%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on May 1 Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 17? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on May 26? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 15? Jun 21 $7 −$2 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 13? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 25? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 30? Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on May 29? Jun 21 $109 −$109 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 7? Jun 21 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on May 12? Jun 21 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 27? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 25? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 13? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 10? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 14? Jun 21 $22 −$20 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 2? Jun 21 $72 −$71 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 2? Jun 21 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 28? Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 15? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 13? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on May 13? Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 16? Jun 21 $6 −$3 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on May 6? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 23? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on May 18? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 14? Jun 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on May 16? Jun 21 $309 −$309 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 28? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 29? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 65¢ $20 3m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 16m
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 65¢ $32 17m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 22m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 26m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 40m
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 86¢ $66 47m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 91¢ $120 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 88¢ $75 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 87¢ $145 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 81¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 78¢ $119 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 12¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? SELL Yes 20¢ $33 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? SELL Yes 25¢ $23 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,844.81 · official $15,845.05 (match) · 3500 history records