Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:43:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf743…1811 sports 120 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (103 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7,267 (+8%) realized +$7,276 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate56%66W / 52L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$787per market
Trades / day103.3pace
Fees−$2,482est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,641
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (103 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -23.7% -31.0% 33% 33% -19.3%
≤30d 112 -6.1% -15.1% 57% 21% -7.6%
≤90d 118 -5.9% -14.9% 56% 21% -7.7%
all 118 -5.9% -14.9% 56% 21% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover103.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 21% -7.7%
10% -23.0% 5% -16.5%
15% ← realistic here -30.5% 5% -24.6%
20% -37.3% 3% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$1,013) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$48 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$7,276
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses66 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$2,482
Open positions2
Markets (closed)118 / 120
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$787
Trades / day103.3
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Gentle Mates 56¢ 56¢ $77 $77 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Gentle Mates 12¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,368 −$91 -7%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $317 −$83 -26%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $317 −$13 -4%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $150 +$19 +13%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $173 −$7 -4%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $222 −$30 -14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $847 +$13 +2%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $340 −$78 -23%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $249 +$2 +1%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $381 −$9 -2%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $252 −$8 -3%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $72 −$1 -1%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $834 +$144 +17%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $621 −$36 -6%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $202 −$61 -30%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $2,012 +$201 +10%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $614 +$92 +15%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,061 +$67 +6%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $1,689 +$143 +8%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $908 −$11 -1%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 01 $258 −$73 -28%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $920 +$38 +4%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $179 −$19 -11%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $1,173 +$37 +3%
LoL: BIG vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs Jun 01 $128 +$7 +6%
Dota 2: OG vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 01 $11 −$10 -93%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $1,283 −$12 -1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $618 +$31 +5%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $1,104 +$25 +2%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner May 30 $523 +$16 +3%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction (BO5) - North American Challengers Leag May 29 $246 +$26 +10%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $889 +$106 +12%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $315 +$5 +2%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers May 28 $126 +$47 +38%
LoL: Supernova vs Winthrop University - Game 2 Winner May 28 $234 +$17 +7%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 2 Winner May 27 $258 −$10 -4%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner May 27 $248 −$20 -8%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner May 27 $451 −$76 -17%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 27 $12 +$2 +12%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 3 Winner May 27 $86 +$1 +1%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 1 Winner May 26 $143 +$19 +14%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $542 +$76 +14%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $1,003 −$3 -0%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $274 +$45 +16%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $293 +$16 +5%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $1,255 −$24 -2%
Dota 2: OG vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $936 −$55 -6%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 26 $47 +$39 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 56¢ $55 24m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 56¢ $22 24m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 41¢ $36 24m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 41¢ $2 24m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 36¢ $34 24m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 45¢ $20 24m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 45¢ $11 24m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 51¢ $10 26m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $44 29m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner SELL Gentle Mates 53¢ $66 30m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner SELL Gentle Mates 53¢ $3 30m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 53¢ $50 33m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 53¢ $18 33m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 44¢ $0 33m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 44¢ $35 33m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 40¢ $32 47m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 12¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 12¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 86¢ $120 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 86¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 85¢ $97 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 86¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 81¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 76¢ $217 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 69¢ $45 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 61¢ $40 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner SELL Gentle Mates 26¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 25¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 25¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 25¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.62 · official $76.62 (match) · 3500 history records