Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:26:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F7
0xf746…411c
crypto · 89 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
+$23 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$85 · open −$67
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$89
Realized+$85
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses19 / 58
Open positions12
Markets (closed)77 / 89
History coverage113d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 12 History 77 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: Other Yes 1¢ 1¢ $24 $33 +$9 (+37%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 56¢ 18¢ $90 $28 −$62 (-69%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $16 $5 −$11 (-71%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-55%)
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House Jun 12 $12 +$19 +158%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 15 $6 −$5 -91%
Military action against Iran ends on April 12, 2026? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 12 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 11 $3 +$1 +22%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b Apr 11 $2 +$16 +800%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 10 $1 +$4 +423%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 30, 20 Apr 09 $2 +$1 +67%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 07 $14 +$2 +14%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 07 $2 $0 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 6? Apr 06 $1 +$1 +121%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 05 $1 +$2 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $30 +$21 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 03 $5 +$9 +178%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 61% −$40
crypto 17% −$59
other 16% −$9
politics 6% +$127
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House SELL Yes 2¢ $31 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 57d
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, SELL Yes 2¢ $1 57d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $6 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 61d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 61d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY No 2¢ $2 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $4 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 62d
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b SELL Yes 15¢ $10 62d
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 62d
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -13.9% -22.1% 33% 33% +21.9%
≤30d 3 -13.9% -22.1% 33% 33% +21.9%
≤90d 64 -8.3% -17.0% 23% 23% +16.4%
all 77 -6.7% -15.6% 25% 25% +12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 25% +12.2%
10% -23.7% 19% +1.5%
15% -31.1% 18% -8.3%
20% -37.8% 17% -17.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.94 · official $88.94 (match) · 291 history records