Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F7 0xf747…7d29 other 223 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$500 (+0%) realized +$319 · open +$181
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%91W / 129L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$756per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$430est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$3,399now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 161d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$5,368
sports 27% −$6,698
crypto 1% −$16
world 1% −$1,180
finance 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -20.6% -28.1% 35% 25% -25.8%
≤30d 44 -16.7% -24.7% 32% 27% -25.5%
≤90d 117 +4.4% -5.5% 42% 40% -5.6%
all 220 +3.7% -6.1% 41% 40% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 40% -11.0%
10% -15.1% 40% -19.6%
15% -23.3% 40% -27.3%
20% -30.8% 38% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$1,009) neutral
Persistence
early +5% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$883 vs −$644 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$3,399
Realized+$319
Unrealized+$181
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses91 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$430
Open positions3
Markets (closed)220 / 223
History coverage161d
Avg bet$756
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 45¢ 46¢ $1,618 $1,682 +$64 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 56¢ $1,000 $1,234 +$234 (+23%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 40¢ $600 $484 −$116 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $561 −$316 -56%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,014 −$616 -61%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,013 −$40 -4%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $510 −$500 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,517 −$1,500 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,014 +$836 +82%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $510 +$878 +172%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,316 +$885 +67%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,011 +$575 +57%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $726 −$37 -5%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 14 $976 −$976 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,515 +$757 +50%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,118 −$124 -11%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,014 −$46 -5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1,474 +$20 +1%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $275 +$1 +0%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 11 $985 −$972 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $1,011 −$996 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 09 $995 −$980 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 09 $1,045 −$50 -5%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $1,157 +$1,120 +97%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? May 31 $96 −$94 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini May 28 $1,071 −$1,050 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $1,118 −$1,100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 28 $102 +$48 +47%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $1,016 +$1,155 +114%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1,608 −$1,585 -98%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $837 +$3,247 +388%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $215 +$624 +291%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $499 −$487 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $585 −$84 -14%
Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $746 −$160 -22%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $663 −$650 -98%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? May 24 $385 −$378 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,016 +$1,066 +105%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $322 +$239 +74%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 21 $357 −$350 -98%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 21 $277 −$272 -98%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-24? May 21 $417 −$410 -98%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 21 $220 −$215 -98%
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-05-23? May 21 $1,514 −$1,494 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $1,123 −$1,106 -98%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,760 −$1,740 -99%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,017 +$1,254 +123%
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $991 +$938 +95%
Will Austin FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $579 +$1,021 +176%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 16 $736 −$725 -98%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $998 +$730 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $2 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $626 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 44¢ $1,017 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1,015 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $245 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $561 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 22¢ $398 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 57¢ $972 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 58¢ $1,013 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1,014 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $510 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1,517 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,850 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1,014 8h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $1,387 26h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $2,201 26h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 18¢ $205 33h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $510 33h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $1,316 33h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 100¢ $1,586 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $1,011 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $689 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $726 3d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 43¢ $993 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 58¢ $976 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $968 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 42¢ $1,494 6d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $276 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 55¢ $3 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 55¢ $983 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,399.05 · official $3,399.27 (match) · 516 history records