Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:55:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F7
0xf749…4b42
other · 8 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage63d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 1 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$3 -56%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 +$4 +109%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 02 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 02 $1 −$1 -74%
Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) win the most seats in the next Hung Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 67% −$5
sports 19% +$4
politics 14% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-55.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -24.3% -31.5% 25% 25% -10.9%
≤30d 4 -24.3% -31.5% 25% 25% -10.9%
≤90d 7 -51.0% -55.7% 14% 14% -24.3%
all 7 -51.0% -55.7% 14% 14% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.7% 14% -24.3%
10% -59.9% 14% -31.5%
15% -63.8% 14% -38.1%
20% -67.4% 14% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.40 · official $1.40 (match) · 15 history records