Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:43:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf749…3d7c crypto 79 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+2%) realized +$39 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate78%45W / 13L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 28% −$7
other 22% +$9
crypto 18% +$11
finance 10% +$13
culture 9% $0
world 6% −$1
politics 3% +$6
tech 2% $0
sports 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 +10.6% +0.1% 89% 33% -1.0%
≤90d 35 -0.6% -10.1% 80% 23% -3.6%
all 58 -0.4% -9.9% 78% 16% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 16% -6.4%
10% -18.5% 10% -15.4%
15% -26.4% 2% -23.5%
20% -33.6% 0% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.67 per $1 lost it wins $2.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$39
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses45 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions21
Markets (closed)58 / 79
History coverage137d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 55¢ 44¢ $27 $21 −$6 (-21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 72¢ 83¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $6 −$3 (-33%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+34%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 63¢ 22¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-65%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 89¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $9 +$3 +29%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 08 $9 +$1 +8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 08 $16 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 08 $23 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 31 $15 +$3 +23%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 31 $16 +$1 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 31 $31 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 31 $13 +$1 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 31 $25 +$6 +24%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $8 −$1 -10%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $5 $0 +4%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 17 $7 +$3 +40%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 17 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 17 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 05 $42 +$2 +4%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 05 $33 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 05 $14 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 05 $25 +$2 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 05 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 05 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 05 $15 +$2 +10%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 05 $26 +$9 +34%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 29 $9 $0 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 27 $26 +$2 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 27 $17 $0 -1%
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 18 $21 +$4 +18%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 13 $9 −$8 -89%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 07 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 05 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 02 $11 $0 +3%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 02 $14 $0 +3%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 02 $36 +$12 +32%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $36 +$6 +16%
Backpack FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 26 $14 +$1 +10%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $182 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Mar 12 $10 −$6 -64%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Mar 06 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February? Mar 02 $7 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in February? Mar 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in February? Mar 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Mar 02 $6 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in February? Mar 02 $9 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in February? Mar 02 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February? Mar 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Mar 02 $8 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Mar 02 $7 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 16m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 37m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 46m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 50m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $29 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $30 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $29 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $29 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $28 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 1h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $14 1h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $16 10d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 72¢ $7 10d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $11 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $35 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $37 10d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $38 10d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $19 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 10d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $21 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 21d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 77¢ $9 21d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 21d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 21d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.40 · official $77.72 · 299 history records