Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:04:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf74a…42c0 sports 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 578d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$124 (-3%) realized +$21 · open −$145
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate55%70W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$869now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days+$170
14 days+$170
30 days+$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$10
sports 46% +$21
world 2% −$91
politics 1% −$38
crypto 1% −$5
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +2.5% -7.3% 81% 32% +0.3%
≤30d 41 -2.5% -11.8% 76% 32% -3.1%
≤90d 115 -9.7% -18.3% 60% 41% -6.8%
all 127 -16.3% -24.3% 55% 38% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 38% -8.6%
10% -31.5% 32% -17.4%
15% -38.1% 26% -25.3%
20% -44.2% 15% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$17 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

578d coverage
Net worth$869
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$145
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses70 / 57
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions12
Markets (closed)127 / 139
History coverage578d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $185 $200 +$15 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $200 $171 −$29 (-15%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $168 $169 +$1 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $262 $148 −$114 (-44%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 28¢ 21¢ $56 $41 −$15 (-26%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 69¢ 100¢ $28 $40 +$12 (+45%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $43 $37 −$6 (-13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $18 $31 +$13 (+70%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $16 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 37¢ $22 $1 −$21 (-97%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Yes 10¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $43 +$57 +134%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $203 +$97 +48%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francesco Maestrelli vs Max Basing Jun 22 $9 +$1 +11%
Andrade vs. Smith: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Alexandrova/Noskova vs. Eikeri/Gleason: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 +$10 +101%
Raja Club Athletic to score first vs. COD Meknès? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Raja Club Athletic leading at halftime? Jun 21 $48 $0 +0%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida leading at halftime? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. RS Berkane: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $29 $0 +0%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. RS Berkane: Maghreb AS de Fès O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
OC Safi vs. US Yacoub El Mansour: US Yacoub El Mansour O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $15 $0 +0%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Wydad Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $43 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $28 −$28 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $24 −$24 -99%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $14 +$16 +113%
Cerundolo vs. Paul: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk Jun 21 $28 +$2 +9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $49 +$21 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $203 +$97 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $23 +$17 +70%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $66 $0 +0%
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $6 $0 +5%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $28 +$22 +75%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Alexander Zverev vs. Raphael Collignon: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $45 +$5 +12%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $26 −$26 -99%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $50 +$4 +8%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Lucio Ratti Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $119 +$84 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $125 −$124 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) May 28 $15 +$15 +105%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 27 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? May 25 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner May 23 $40 +$19 +48%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 23 $40 −$40 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 22 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o May 20 $3 $0 -12%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 20 $25 +$6 +22%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $302 +$108 +36%
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $28 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $169 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $85 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $43 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $203 26h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francesco Maestrelli vs Max Basing BUY Max Basing 90¢ $9 26h
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 28h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 28h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 28h
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $16 30h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 30h
Andrade vs. Smith: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 30h
Alexandrova/Noskova vs. Eikeri/Gleason: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 33h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 42h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $28 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 79¢ $24 2d
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Wydad Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $43 2d
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida leading at halftime? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 2d
Raja Club Athletic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 100¢ $48 2d
Raja Club Athletic to score first vs. COD Meknès? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2d
OC Safi vs. US Yacoub El Mansour: US Yacoub El Mansour O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $15 2d
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. RS Berkane: Maghreb AS de Fès O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $20 2d
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. RS Berkane: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $29 2d
Cerundolo vs. Paul: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 2d
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 47¢ $14 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk BUY Aleksandar Vukic 92¢ $28 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $49 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $203 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $869.11 · official $860.59 (match) · 309 history records