Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:27:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf74c…9050 politics 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 638d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%2W / 83L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% −$12
other 13% −$2
economics 12% −$2
sports 2% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 85 -0.5% -9.9% 2% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

638d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage638d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $50 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $50 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $50 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $52 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $52 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $52 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $52 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $52 $0 +0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 12 $52 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 11 $52 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 07 $52 $0 +0%
Will Brentford finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leag Feb 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 24 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ben Carson be Trump's HHS Secretary? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the Eastern Conference? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Ethena crash in 2024? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will another player be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2 Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Dolphins win the AFC Championship? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dak Prescott be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dexter Lawrence win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Falcons win the NFC Championship? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Texas win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Trudeau out in 2024? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 21 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Dec 21 $0 $0 -1%
Democrats win popular vote by 5-6%? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 09 $0 $0 -7%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Michigan win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 26 $0 $0 -2%
Will Jack Chambers be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Centre Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentar Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked' gross more than $135m opening weekend? Nov 26 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 14h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 3d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 4d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 17d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 17d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $50 31d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $50 31d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $50 39d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $50 40d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 41d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 42d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 47d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 47d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 72d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 73d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $52 78d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $52 78d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 79d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 80d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 83d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 83d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 91d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 92d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $52 98d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 99d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 104d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 104d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $52 106d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $52 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 183 history records