Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:28:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf74c…4b75 world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% $0
other 28% $0
politics 25% $0
sports 9% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.2% -9.3% 8% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 32 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 32 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 32 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 31
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage12d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? Jun 21 $17 $0 +0%
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 Jun 21 $37 $0 +0%
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? Jun 20 $18 $0 +3%
Will the median home value in the US be less than $429,000 on June 30? Jun 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? Jun 20 $75 $0 +0%
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December Jun 14 $31 $0 +0%
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French pr Jun 14 $76 $0 +0%
Will the median home value in the US be between $429,000 and $431,000 Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
World Cup: Single Match Yellow Cards Record Broken? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 14 $4 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit? Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? Jun 14 $9 $0 +0%
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? Jun 13 $90 $0 +0%
Will the median home value in the US be between $431,000 and $433,000 Jun 13 $13 $0 -1%
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? Jun 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Dum Jun 12 $25 $0 +0%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 11 $14 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $16 $0 +0%
Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Trump meets with Putin by September 30? Jun 10 $70 $0 +0%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Jun 10 $70 $0 +0%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 10? Jun 10 $23 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 10 $26 $0 -1%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 09 $9 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? SELL No 85¢ $13 1h
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? SELL No 85¢ $4 1h
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? BUY No 85¢ $17 1h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $33 1h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 BUY No 93¢ $33 1h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 SELL Yes 8¢ $4 7h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 BUY Yes 8¢ $3 7h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7h
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $20 9h
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $20 9h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 27h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 27h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 27h
Will the median home value in the US be less than $429,000 on June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 29h
Will the median home value in the US be less than $429,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 29h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 33h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 33h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 33h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 33h
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $27 34h
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $27 34h
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? SELL No 88¢ $75 38h
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? BUY No 88¢ $75 38h
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December SELL No 88¢ $31 6d
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December BUY No 88¢ $31 6d
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 6d
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 6d
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 6d
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6d
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French pr SELL No 85¢ $76 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records