Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:09:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf756…f69f crypto 331 markets active 4d ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$51 (-11%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%176W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days−$57
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$63
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +12.1% +1.4% 59% 56% -6.2%
≤30d 331 -9.8% -18.4% 53% 47% -21.8%
≤90d 331 -9.8% -18.4% 53% 47% -21.8%
all 331 -9.8% -18.4% 53% 47% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 47% -21.8%
10% -26.2% 42% -29.3%
15% -33.3% 29% -36.1%
20% -39.9% 18% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses176 / 155
Open positions0
Markets (closed)331 / 331
History coverage25d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 331 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -64%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +106%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -13%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +80%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -36%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $5 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 829 history records