Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:41:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf756…59c2 sports 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$489 (-21%) realized −$474 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%42W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$368
other 27% −$147
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -26.4% -33.4% 40% 40% -16.0%
≤30d 25 -18.8% -26.6% 40% 40% -9.2%
≤90d 25 -18.8% -26.6% 40% 40% -9.2%
all 93 -10.1% -18.6% 45% 45% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 45% -29.3%
10% -26.4% 43% -36.1%
15% -33.5% 40% -42.2%
20% -40.1% 34% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$25 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$474
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses42 / 51
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 96
History coverage110d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 20¢ $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 +$11 +105%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$3 +60%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$10 +101%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +54%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +108%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +276%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 20 $80 −$80 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $31 +$49 +156%
FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 19 $10 +$5 +49%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Mar 19 $10 +$6 +61%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Suns vs. Timberwolves Mar 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: Both Teams to Score Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $7 +$4 +51%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $10 +$3 +30%
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Mar 17 $10 +$7 +66%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Mar 17 $15 +$13 +88%
Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: Both Teams to Score Mar 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Score Mar 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 Mar 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $67 −$67 -100%
US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Score Mar 16 $79 −$79 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to Score Mar 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 15 $72 +$77 +108%
FC Barcelona vs. Sevilla FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 15 $92 +$67 +72%
Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 15 $10 +$3 +28%
FC Porto vs. Moreirense FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 15 $50 −$4 -8%
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 15 $5 +$3 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $31 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND England vs. Ghana: Both BUY 6¢ $10 5h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 25h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 10¢ $10 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $5 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $5 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 7d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 8d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 9d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 9d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 9d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $2 9d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $1 10d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $1 10d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 10d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 10d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 10d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 10d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $1 10d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 10d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 10d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.00 · official $15.00 (match) · 173 history records