Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:38:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf759…96b4 sports 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$152 (-27%) realized −$161 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$111
sports 32% −$34
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +18.3% +7.1% 44% 41% -37.4%
≤30d 34 +18.3% +7.1% 44% 41% -37.4%
≤90d 34 +18.3% +7.1% 44% 41% -37.4%
all 34 +18.3% +7.1% 44% 41% -37.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.1% 41% -37.4%
10% -3.2% 41% -43.4%
15% -12.5% 35% -48.9%
20% -21.1% 29% -53.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +75% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$161
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage6d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 81¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 28¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 +$4 +344%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 +$4 +365%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$4 +388%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$16 +786%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 +$32 +46%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$4 -76%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 +$4 +42%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $36 +$39 +109%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 +$10 +24%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +26%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $2 +$1 +70%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 +$3 +65%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 16h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 18h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 21h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 21h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 25h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 42h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $2 42h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 42h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2d
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $9 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $36 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 70¢ $10 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $41 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 24¢ $5 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.78 · official $64.00 (match) · 54 history records