Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:38:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf759…faa7 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,850 (-23%) realized −$1,846 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%9W / 36L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$530now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,362
7 days−$1,658
14 days−$1,953
30 days−$1,953
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$1,266
other 21% −$624
crypto 1% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-51.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -46.2% -51.4% 19% 19% -31.7%
≤30d 45 -46.4% -51.5% 20% 20% -33.0%
≤90d 45 -46.4% -51.5% 20% 20% -33.0%
all 45 -46.4% -51.5% 20% 20% -33.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.5% 20% -33.0%
10% -56.1% 18% -39.4%
15% -60.4% 16% -45.2%
20% -64.3% 11% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -54% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$93 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$530
Realized−$1,846
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses9 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage12d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 62¢ 62¢ $535 $530 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $20 +$40 +197%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $846 −$335 -40%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $748 +$98 +13%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $515 +$233 +45%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $270 −$270 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2,378 −$1,864 -78%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $20 −$14 -66%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $21 +$88 +428%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,580 +$734 +46%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$9 -88%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $62 −$61 -99%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $21 −$12 -60%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $82 −$82 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $82 −$67 -81%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $40 −$10 -25%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $56 −$3 -6%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $99 +$125 +126%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $49 +$50 +103%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$4 -37%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $20 +$5 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $541 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 8h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 9h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 9h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $511 9h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $846 11h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $846 11h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $748 12h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 100¢ $748 14h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 68¢ $515 14h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 SELL Over 17¢ $88 15h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 SELL Over 17¢ $425 15h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $2,378 16h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 19h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 21h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 21h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 21h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 87¢ $108 35h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,314 36h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1,580 46h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $270 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $530.36 · official $530.36 (match) · 95 history records