Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:48:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf759…5090 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$459 (-70%) realized −$481 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -82% what you keep after slip
Net edge-82%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$36
14 days−$117
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$413
tech 13% −$81
finance 4% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-81.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -58.1% -62.1% 0% 0% -58.3%
≤30d 4 -79.0% -81.0% 0% 0% -81.3%
≤90d 10 -80.0% -81.9% 10% 10% -90.7%
all 10 -80.0% -81.9% 10% 10% -90.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -81.9% 10% -90.7%
10% -83.6% 0% -91.6%
15% -85.2% 0% -92.4%
20% -86.7% 0% -93.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -90% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -80% · $-wt -90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$57 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$481
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage102d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $25 $36 +$11 (+45%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $27 $34 +$7 (+28%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $30 $34 +$3 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $36 −$6 -16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $22 −$21 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Tatsuro Taira win by KO or TKO? May 09 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Delta Air Lines (DAL) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 09 $24 +$4 +16%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Apr 05 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Apr 05 $110 −$110 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $30 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 18¢ $22 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 26¢ $62 8d
Will Tatsuro Taira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 19¢ $72 42d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $61 72d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 36¢ $50 76d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $27 76d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $30 76d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $25 76d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $36 76d
Will Delta Air Lines (DAL) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 86¢ $24 80d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? BUY Yes 65¢ $110 101d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 56¢ $109 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.04 · official $103.04 (match) · 95 history records