Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:27:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F7 0xf75f…5100 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$368 (+12%) realized +$368 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate100%17W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$285
14 days+$416
30 days+$416
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$416
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +16.6% +5.5% 100% 50% +2.5%
≤30d 17 +13.2% +2.4% 100% 47% +2.4%
≤90d 17 +13.2% +2.4% 100% 47% +2.4%
all 17 +13.2% +2.4% 100% 47% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.4% 47% +2.4%
10% -7.4% 12% -7.4%
15% -16.3% 6% -16.3%
20% -24.5% 0% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$368
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses17 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage9d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $528 +$46 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $512 +$22 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $197 +$80 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $302 +$35 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $301 +$17 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $295 +$85 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $202 +$33 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$9 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records