Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:19:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf75f…b458 weather 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$165 (+20%) realized +$54 · open +$111
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%11W / 13L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day41.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$420
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -7.6% -16.4% 46% 38% +26.1%
≤30d 24 -7.6% -16.4% 46% 38% +26.1%
≤90d 24 -7.6% -16.4% 46% 38% +26.1%
all 24 -7.6% -16.4% 46% 38% +26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 38% +26.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 33% +14.0%
15% -31.7% 25% +3.0%
20% -38.4% 25% -7.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +39% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$2 · ×14.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.25 per $1 lost it wins $12.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$111
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses11 / 13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)24 / 27
History coverage2d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day41.2
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? Yes 30¢ $2 $116 +$113 (+4781%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? No 58¢ 38¢ $38 $25 −$13 (-35%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 18? Yes 10¢ $4 $15 +$11 (+235%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $4 −$3 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 18 $12 −$6 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $13 +$14 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $172 +$134 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $66 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $78 +$10 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 +$2 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $34 +$47 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $27 +$53 +194%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $124 +$33 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $149 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$4 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $52 +$28 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes $0 12m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes $1 15m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes $3 16m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 58¢ $39 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 88¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 95¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $305 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 50¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 57¢ $122 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 46¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 43¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 62¢ $48 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 63¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 62¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 60¢ $24 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 51¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 45¢ $13 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 17? SELL Yes $1 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY Yes $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY No $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 88¢ $14 17h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 88¢ $74 17h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 17h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 19h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 39¢ $7 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.53 · official $155.67 (match) · 95 history records