Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:14:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf762…e14f crypto 1512 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 81d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$899 (-17%) realized −$899 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%640W / 685L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days+$112
14 days+$96
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$14
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 187 -11.9% -20.3% 31% 21% -6.5%
≤30d 776 -16.1% -24.1% 39% 33% -13.8%
≤90d 1325 -7.4% -16.2% 48% 44% -11.5%
all 1325 -7.4% -16.2% 48% 44% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 44% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 39% -19.9%
15% -31.5% 32% -27.7%
20% -38.2% 25% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$899
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses640 / 685
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1325 / 1512
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1325 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $41 +$13 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $12 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$5 +450%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $8 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $8 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$4 +305%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.58 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records