trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +10.3% | -0.2% | 100% | 50% | +3.9% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +30.8% | +18.4% | 100% | 50% | +64.7% |
| ≤90d | 17 | +8.4% | -1.9% | 76% | 53% | +36.8% |
| all | 17 | +8.4% | -1.9% | 76% | 53% | +36.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -1.9% | 53% | +36.8% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -11.3% | 29% | +23.7% |
| 15% | -19.9% | 24% | +11.8% |
| 20% | -27.7% | 6% | +0.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | $12,772 | $13,852 | +$1,080 (+8%) |
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? | No | 40¢ | 83¢ | $6,242 | $12,982 | +$6,740 (+108%) |
| Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? | No | 74¢ | 97¢ | $7,453 | $9,819 | +$2,366 (+32%) |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 81¢ | $4,226 | $6,821 | +$2,595 (+61%) |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 19¢ | $4,226 | $1,631 | −$2,595 (-61%) |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? | No | 85¢ | 80¢ | $529 | $498 | −$30 (-6%) |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? | Yes | 12¢ | 6¢ | $277 | $127 | −$150 (-54%) |
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? | No | 26¢ | 55¢ | $52 | $109 | +$57 (+110%) |
| Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? | No | 10¢ | 0¢ | $6,421 | $31 | −$6,390 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? | Jun 25 | $970 | +$30 | +3% |
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Jun 22 | $4,254 | +$748 | +18% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 12 | $716 | +$9 | +1% |
| Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | Jun 08 | $636 | +$77 | +12% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $13,598 | +$24,561 | +181% |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? | Jun 01 | $6,079 | +$796 | +13% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? | Jun 01 | $6,425 | +$658 | +10% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Jun 01 | $110 | +$9 | +8% |
| Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | May 17 | $417 | +$206 | +49% |
| Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $1,512 | −$1,506 | -100% |
| Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | May 16 | $6,142 | +$1,258 | +20% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Apr 25 | $4,451 | +$1,736 | +39% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | Apr 20 | $2,535 | +$647 | +26% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? | Apr 17 | $4,652 | −$2,124 | -46% |
| Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Apr 13 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Apr 12 | $2,100 | +$900 | +43% |
| Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Apr 10 | $59 | −$21 | -35% |