Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:14:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F7 0xf768…27f1 crypto 1493 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$150 (-0%) realized +$51 · open −$201
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%772W / 805L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day33.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,145
7 days−$196
14 days+$399
30 days+$2,326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,550
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 288 -49.4% -54.3% 28% 28% -12.7%
≤30d 565 -19.4% -27.0% 45% 45% +1.7%
≤90d 1577 -11.8% -20.2% 49% 48% -8.8%
all 1577 -11.8% -20.2% 49% 48% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 48% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 48% -17.6%
15% -34.8% 48% -25.5%
20% -41.2% 48% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$29 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized+$51
Unrealized−$201
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses772 / 805
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1577 / 1493
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day33.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1577 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 58¢ 52¢ $195 $173 −$22 (-11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Up 57¢ 6¢ $198 $19 −$179 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $309 −$309 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $201 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $82 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $32 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $80 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.60 · official $189.24 · 3500 history records