Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:58:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf76a…71e6 other 97 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$413 (-16%) realized −$408 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%20W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$202
7 days−$483
14 days−$468
30 days−$468
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$183
sports 49% −$296
crypto 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -16.2% -24.2% 22% 22% -28.8%
≤30d 90 -11.7% -20.1% 22% 22% -27.4%
≤90d 90 -11.7% -20.1% 22% 22% -27.4%
all 90 -11.7% -20.1% 22% 22% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 22% -27.4%
10% -27.8% 21% -34.4%
15% -34.8% 21% -40.7%
20% -41.2% 21% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$25 · ×2.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$408
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses20 / 70
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions7
Markets (closed)90 / 97
History coverage7d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Curaçao leading at halftime? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-6%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 15¢ 14¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $17 +$11 +65%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 20 $17 +$60 +344%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $62 +$43 +70%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $10 +$31 +307%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $39 −$28 -73%
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $26 −$26 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $71 −$70 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $72 −$70 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $126 −$125 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$19 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $50 −$49 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $22 +$75 +344%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First H Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $30 −$29 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $23 −$23 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $20 +$3 +16%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $30 −$2 -6%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $20 −$19 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 +$25 +122%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $15 +$78 +509%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $30 −$29 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $42 +$339 +806%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 4m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 5m
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 5m
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5m
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 12m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $8 16m
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 11¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 6¢ $17 2h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? SELL Yes 69¢ $77 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $30 2h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $17 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 8¢ $11 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $62 25h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $39 25h
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $26 26h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $71 26h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 9¢ $72 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $126 47h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 19¢ $61 2d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 29¢ $3 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 34¢ $4 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $50 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 100¢ $97 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 22¢ $22 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.89 · official $72.06 (match) · 140 history records