Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:16:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf76e…5aef crypto 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$115 (-4%) realized −$115 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate88%43W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$1
world 16% −$29
weather 7% +$1
finance 7% $0
other 7% −$15
politics 4% −$76
tech 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 -10.5% -19.0% 89% 0% -12.6%
≤90d 39 -9.2% -17.8% 90% 0% -14.4%
all 49 -6.7% -15.6% 88% 4% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 4% -13.3%
10% -23.7% 0% -21.6%
15% -31.1% 0% -29.2%
20% -37.8% 0% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$21 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses43 / 6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)49 / 52
History coverage122d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 16? Jun 16 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 13 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 1-7? Jun 13 $88 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? Jun 04 $80 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 24? May 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 27? May 29 $86 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $33 −$32 -97%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $109 −$76 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 14 $60 $0 +0%
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 10? May 11 $88 $0 +0%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 5? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C or higher on May 3? May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.80 on May 4? May 08 $88 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 02 $10 $0 +3%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on Apri May 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 20-26? Apr 27 $100 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 26 $112 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on April 18 Apr 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 62°F or higher on April 19? Apr 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on April 21? Apr 23 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C or below on April 16 Apr 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on April 16? Apr 18 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C or below on April 13? Apr 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 6-12? Apr 14 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 9? Apr 11 $119 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or higher on April 8? Apr 09 $118 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 07 $118 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Solana dip to $55 on April 3? Apr 04 $120 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Apr 03 $120 $0 +0%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 21, 2026? Mar 25 $14 +$2 +12%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 25 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Mar 23 $105 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 21 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 on March 15? Mar 21 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 16 $117 +$1 +1%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026? Mar 16 $117 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 February 23-March 1? Mar 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 23-March 1? Mar 03 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? BUY No 100¢ $75 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $74 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 14d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $12 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $88 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $13 23d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 100¢ $21 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 100¢ $80 28d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $15 35d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $86 35d
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 44d
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL Yes 23¢ $33 44d
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 73¢ $109 44d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 47d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 47d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $88 50d
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $12 50d
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $11 54d
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%? BUY No 100¢ $10 54d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.80 on May 4? BUY No 100¢ $88 56d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C or higher on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $12 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $51 60d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $35 60d
Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on Apri BUY No 100¢ $13 60d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $11 60d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 62d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 20-26? BUY No 100¢ $100 62d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 63d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.78 · official $98.78 (match) · 101 history records