Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:22:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F7 0xf779…f365 sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+20%) realized +$44 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$15
sports 35% +$38
crypto 7% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -4.1% -13.2% 67% 33% +33.5%
≤90d 3 -4.1% -13.2% 67% 33% +33.5%
all 3 -4.1% -13.2% 67% 33% +33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 33% +33.5%
10% -21.5% 33% +20.7%
15% -29.1% 33% +9.1%
20% -36.0% 33% -1.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +48% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$10 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.83 per $1 lost it wins $3.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$44
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage14d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 34¢ $81 $67 −$15 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $44 +$38 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 09 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $83 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 SELL Under 100¢ $83 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 53¢ $44 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 12d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 98¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.61 · official $68.56 · 7 history records