Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:02:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F7 0xf77a…62fa sports 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16,670 (+10%) realized +$17,789 · open −$1,119
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate81%64W / 15L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$2,152per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$94est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,272
7 days+$2,812
14 days+$3,423
30 days+$3,423
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% +$11,887
sports 33% +$3,561
economics 3% +$122
other 3% +$49
world 1% −$8
crypto 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +12.9% +2.2% 76% 50% +2.5%
≤30d 41 +13.5% +2.7% 78% 49% +1.5%
≤90d 41 +13.5% +2.7% 78% 49% +1.5%
all 79 +16.5% +5.4% 81% 35% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.4% 35% -0.7%
10% ← realistic here -4.7% 24% -10.2%
15% -13.9% 19% -18.8%
20% -22.3% 14% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,301) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$269 vs −$29 · ×9.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×39.35 per $1 lost it wins $39.35
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$17,789
Unrealized−$1,119
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses64 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$94
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage242d
Avg bet$2,152
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Yes 91¢ 6¢ $1,200 $81 −$1,119 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,442 +$261 +18%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 −$73 -72%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $29 −$20 -70%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $25 +$13 +50%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,301 +$17 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $207 +$100 +48%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $720 +$749 +104%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $252 +$14 +6%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $33 +$10 +31%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$19 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $2,404 +$98 +4%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,929 +$135 +7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$24 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $151 +$63 +42%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $56 +$97 +172%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $35 +$22 +62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $501 +$26 +5%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3,717 +$315 +8%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $157 +$74 +47%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,512 +$515 +34%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $152 −$150 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$8 -8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $492 −$65 -13%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,506 +$218 +14%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $639 +$24 +4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $635 +$20 +3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $201 +$24 +12%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 +$22 +21%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $100 +$11 +11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $158 +$188 +119%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2,003 +$106 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$18 -17%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $6,617 +$483 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $231 +$128 +55%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? May 27 $4 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in January? Feb 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? Feb 28 $51 $0 +0%
Hornets vs. Thunder Jan 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? Dec 10 $3 $0 +10%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 10 $281 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $636 +$22 +4%
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies Dec 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Dec 05 $2 +$4 +203%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,203 7m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,704 15m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,442 34m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $28 34m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 35m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 43m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $29 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 66¢ $25 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,318 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $700 4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 98¢ $600 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $59 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $148 23h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $610 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 59¢ $73 25h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 99¢ $180 26h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 26h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 45¢ $86 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 37h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $109 37h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $151 37h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $30 37h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 37h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $33 37h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 97¢ $300 45h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 96¢ $701 45h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 95¢ $1,001 45h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 94¢ $351 45h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $39 46h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.73 · official $80.73 (match) · 329 history records