Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:53:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F7
0xf77e…b594
sports · 208 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$1,300 +36%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,202 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,202
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses125 / 81
Est. fees paid−$145
Open positions2
Markets (closed)206 / 208
History coverage172d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 2 History 206 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$413
7 days+$866
14 days+$1,060
30 days+$1,101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-76%)
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 1¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Chicago Cubs 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Arizona Diamondbacks 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Canadiens 0¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Seattle Mariners 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Dodgers 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? No 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Toronto Blue Jays 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 2¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets New York Mets 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Kansas City Royals 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers San Francisco Giants 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire PortlandFire 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $663 +$387 +58%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $24 +$5 +21%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $20 −$5 -26%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $17 +$5 +28%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $12 +$4 +33%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$55 +108%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $230 −$35 -15%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $19 +$5 +24%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $3 +$1 +33%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $200 +$318 +159%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $3 +$4 +127%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $18 +$2 +11%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $16 +$11 +73%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $23 −$11 -47%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $24 +$2 +8%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $14 +$4 +29%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $33 +$35 +104%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $17 +$7 +38%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $16 +$8 +50%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $8 +$4 +50%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $24 −$1 -3%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $25 +$2 +7%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $6 +$2 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $130 +$50 +38%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $0 +$2 +500%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $2 +$2 +105%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $18 +$4 +22%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $12 +$5 +44%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $3 +$2 +53%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $7 +$5 +65%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $0 $0 +103%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $7 −$2 -23%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 06 $15 +$10 +70%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $18 −$8 -43%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $10 +$2 +16%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $14 +$5 +37%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $17 +$11 +62%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $20 +$1 +7%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $14 −$1 -4%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $14 +$5 +34%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 04 $11 $0 +3%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $13 +$4 +31%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $11 +$4 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $100 +$50 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 71% +$650
other 29% +$551
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 58m
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 59m
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 59m
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 0¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 0¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 0¢ $4 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 1¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 1¢ $3 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 1¢ $13 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 0¢ $6 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+37.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +62.3% +46.8% 78% 78% +39.0%
≤30d 180 +47.8% +33.7% 57% 49% +23.3%
≤90d 180 +47.8% +33.7% 57% 49% +23.3%
all 206 +51.4% +37.0% 61% 53% +24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.0% 53% +24.4%
10% +23.9% 47% +12.5%
15% +11.9% 37% +1.6%
20% +0.9% 26% -8.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.17 · official $0.17 (match) · 3500 history records