Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:50:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F7 0xf780…be2c crypto 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,378 (+6%) realized +$5,509 · open −$1,131
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate57%54W / 40L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$706per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$3,309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$695
7 days+$3,416
14 days+$7,680
30 days+$7,420
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$989
other 34% +$8,727
world 11% −$769
sports 3% −$1,371
crypto 3% +$367
tech 2% −$1,321
culture 1% −$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +24.1% +12.3% 73% 68% +42.4%
≤30d 36 +4.5% -5.4% 67% 58% +16.6%
≤90d 93 +7.8% -2.5% 58% 49% -0.6%
all 94 +6.8% -3.3% 57% 49% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 49% -1.0%
10% -12.6% 34% -10.5%
15% -21.0% 24% -19.1%
20% -28.8% 18% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$254 vs −$202 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$3,309
Realized+$5,509
Unrealized−$1,131
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses54 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)94 / 99
History coverage253d
Avg bet$706
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Another pandemic before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $2,339 $2,260 −$79 (-3%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 32¢ 12¢ $1,600 $629 −$971 (-61%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 28¢ 23¢ $500 $420 −$80 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $202 +$481 +238%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $61 +$10 +17%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $201 +$29 +14%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $940 +$205 +22%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $506 +$314 +62%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $221 +$47 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 26 $37 +$39 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 26 $45 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,750 +$1,103 +63%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $183 +$268 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $131 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$12 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $929 +$671 +72%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $684 +$327 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $298 +$209 +70%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8,470 +$4,827 +57%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,221 +$502 +16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1,311 −$1,300 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $201 +$26 +13%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $309 +$73 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $155 −$116 -74%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 114.5 Jun 09 $303 −$300 -99%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $300 −$300 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5,000 +$352 +7%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $182 +$37 +20%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $1,040 −$134 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 25 $26 +$2 +9%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 25 $51 +$10 +19%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 24 $3,496 −$3,496 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $525 +$147 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -94%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? May 23 $303 +$3 +1%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 22 $573 +$291 +51%
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $223 −$220 -99%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $390 on May 12? May 12 $1,365 −$1,324 -97%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 11 $26,158 +$3,138 +12%
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl Apr 20 $210 +$43 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 12 $15 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $71 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $61 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $202 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $201 45h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 73¢ $237 45h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 46h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $703 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 82¢ $221 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $506 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $73 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,308.60 · official $3,308.60 (match) · 444 history records