Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F7 0xf781…b6df other 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+0%) realized +$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 119L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$16
politics 33% −$14
sports 9% +$103
crypto 4% −$1
economics 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 88 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 133 +4.2% -5.7% 11% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 7% -9.3%
10% -14.7% 6% -18.0%
15% -23.0% 4% -25.9%
20% -30.5% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$0 · ×22.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.7 per $1 lost it wins $2.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage134d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $202 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $184 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $629 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $343 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $178 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $179 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $218 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $268 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $167 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $359 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $351 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $204 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $160 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $155 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $152 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $204 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $255 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $256 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $221 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $466 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $414 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $439 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $241 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $223 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $434 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $224 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $438 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $183 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $211 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $233 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $430 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $253 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $237 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $186 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $248 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $473 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $419 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $254 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $208 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $454 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 25h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 43h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 8d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 8d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 17d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 20d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 20d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 21d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $202 25d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $202 27d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $184 35d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $184 37d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 37d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $215 38d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $215 46d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $150 46d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $150 47d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $215 48d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $215 49d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $178 49d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $178 49d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 49d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 49d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 49d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $218 49d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $64 49d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $64 50d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $167 50d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $167 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.98 · official $33.98 (match) · 410 history records