Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:08:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf784…dd24 weather 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-2%) realized −$29 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate62%77W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 88% −$47
other 6% −$10
world 4% $0
politics 1% +$1
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-43.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 123 -37.1% -43.1% 62% 0% -13.4%
all 125 -37.2% -43.2% 62% 1% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.2% 1% -14.0%
10% -48.7% 0% -22.3%
15% -53.6% 0% -29.8%
20% -58.2% 0% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -71% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses77 / 48
Open positions2
Markets (closed)125 / 127
History coverage92d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Sergey Brin be 2nd richest person on December 31? No 90¢ 60¢ $13 $8 −$4 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 20? Apr 21 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or higher on April 20 Apr 21 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on April 20? Apr 21 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on April 20? Apr 21 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 20? Apr 21 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 19? Apr 20 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on April 19? Apr 20 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 18? Apr 19 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on April 19? Apr 19 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on April 18? Apr 19 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 18? Apr 19 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on April 18? Apr 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 18 Apr 19 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 19? Apr 19 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on April 18? Apr 19 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ap Apr 18 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 17? Apr 18 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 40-41°F on April 17? Apr 18 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 17? Apr 18 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 71°F or below on April 17? Apr 18 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on April 16? Apr 18 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 16? Apr 17 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 16? Apr 17 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 16? Apr 17 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 16? Apr 17 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 15? Apr 16 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 15? Apr 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on April 15? Apr 16 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 15? Apr 16 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 15? Apr 16 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on Apri Apr 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on April 15? Apr 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 15? Apr 16 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 16? Apr 16 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on April 14? Apr 15 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on Apri Apr 15 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 14? Apr 15 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C or higher on Apri Apr 15 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 14? Apr 15 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 13? Apr 14 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 13? Apr 14 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 13? Apr 14 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 36°C on April 13? Apr 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 13? Apr 14 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on April 13? Apr 14 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April Apr 13 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 12 Apr 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ap Apr 13 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on April 12? Apr 13 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $70 20d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or higher on April 20 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or higher on April 20 BUY No 98¢ $13 59d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 20? BUY No 98¢ $10 60d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on April 20? BUY No 98¢ $12 60d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 20? BUY No 98¢ $13 60d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on April 20? BUY No 98¢ $11 60d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on April 19? BUY No 98¢ $15 61d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 19? BUY No 98¢ $13 61d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on April 19? BUY No 98¢ $14 61d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 19? BUY No 99¢ $10 61d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 18? BUY No 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on April 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.31 · official $38.31 (match) · 318 history records