Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:01:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F7 0xf784…ab48 world 276 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 109d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,823 (+4%) realized +$2,741 · open +$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +180% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +116% what you keep after slip
Net edge+116%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate73%163W / 61L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 110d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$8,385
politics 20% +$1,834
other 8% +$242
sports 3% +$86
tech 1% +$2
crypto 0% +$8
economics 0% +$645
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+153.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -4.5% -13.6% 77% 20% -8.6%
≤30d 92 +36.5% +23.5% 80% 35% -6.0%
≤90d 145 +84.2% +66.6% 80% 37% -4.8%
all 224 +180.4% +153.7% 73% 35% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +153.7% 35% +5.5%
10% ← realistic here +129.4% 28% -4.6%
15% +107.3% 25% -13.8%
20% +86.9% 20% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +180% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +295% → late +66% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$19 · ×3.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.92 per $1 lost it wins $11.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$1,244
Realized+$2,741
Unrealized+$82
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses163 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions69
Markets (closed)224 / 276
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$236
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 69 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes 55¢ 62¢ $290 $331 +$42 (+14%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $114 $114 +$1 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $91 $94 +$3 (+3%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 89¢ 94¢ $89 $94 +$4 (+5%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 85¢ 92¢ $34 $37 +$3 (+9%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $27 $29 +$2 (+6%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 86¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 76¢ 84¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+11%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+11%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 94¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 90¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+14%)
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $8 $17 +$9 (+119%)
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026? Yes 88¢ 81¢ $18 $16 −$1 (-8%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+9%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 86¢ 99¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+16%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Yes 89¢ 96¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+8%)
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? No 90¢ 78¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-13%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 86¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+5%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $397 +$3 +1%
Spread: Egypt (-3.5) Jun 22 $89 +$1 +1%
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Jun 22 $38 +$2 +6%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $184 +$10 +6%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $9 $0 +1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +16%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $19 +$1 +3%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $4 +$6 +133%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $47 +$3 +6%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $43 +$7 +17%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $7 +$3 +39%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $5 +$1 +11%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $4 −$2 -45%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 20 $108 +$1 +1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 +10%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $6 +$1 +10%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +6%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? Jun 15 $300 $0 -0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $966 +$34 +4%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $3,000 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $41 +$14 +34%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $4 +$6 +156%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $89 +$2 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $112 +$11 +10%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $18 +$5 +26%
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026? Jun 14 $312 +$98 +31%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 -3%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $21 +$9 +41%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$2 -20%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $58 +$2 +4%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $46 −$9 -20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Macron out by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $146 +$15 +10%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $1 +$2 +154%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $60 +$2 +3%
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Jun 07 $20 +$2 +10%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $7 +$1 +18%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $9 +$1 +16%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $22 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 23m
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 2¢ $35 1h
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) SELL New Zealand 100¢ $40 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 99¢ $192 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 2h
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 95¢ $9 2h
Spread: Egypt (-3.5) BUY New Zealand 99¢ $49 2h
Spread: Egypt (-3.5) BUY New Zealand 99¢ $40 2h
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 92¢ $9 2h
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 96¢ $19 2h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $93 7h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 7h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 7h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 15h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 90¢ $45 15h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 91¢ $36 15h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 23h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 27¢ $2 23h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 27¢ $1 23h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 28h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 28h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 0¢ $0 31h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 94¢ $22 31h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 94¢ $13 31h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 94¢ $7 31h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 94¢ $9 31h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 97¢ $3 31h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 97¢ $45 31h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 97¢ $29 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,244.26 · official $1,244.26 (match) · 3500 history records