Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:54:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf785…c473 politics 161 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,936 (+1%) realized +$1,934 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate18%29W / 131L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$1,586per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$16
14 days+$17
30 days−$269
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$143
other 32% −$72
sports 13% +$2,148
culture 3% −$10
world 2% −$5
tech 2% −$6
economics 2% −$5
crypto 1% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 47 -5.1% -14.1% 6% 4% -9.9%
≤90d 108 -10.1% -18.7% 6% 4% -8.8%
all 160 +0.1% -9.4% 18% 9% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 9% -8.9%
10% -18.1% 9% -17.6%
15% -26.0% 8% -25.5%
20% -33.2% 7% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 83% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,044) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$11 · ×10.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized+$1,934
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses29 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)160 / 161
History coverage137d
Avg bet$1,586
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $246 $248 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $665 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $932 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,774 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2,743 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $948 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,664 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $884 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $3,359 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $5,419 −$7 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,147 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,044 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $2,916 −$4 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,280 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $3,077 −$3 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 07 $69 +$64 +93%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $2,419 −$4 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 04 $705 −$1 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 04 $54 +$40 +73%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,494 −$4 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $58 −$58 -100%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $2,264 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $476 +$1 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $3,568 −$4 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $3,217 −$4 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $1,848 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 27 $415 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,082 −$2 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $1,084 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $2,407 −$3 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $1,104 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2,772 −$3 -0%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 23 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $2,891 −$5 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,286 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $1,142 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,291 −$2 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $822 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 20 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $3,606 −$4 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $2,906 −$5 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $2,672 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $751 1m
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $752 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $664 2h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $665 4h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $706 43h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $707 45h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $931 45h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $932 47h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $885 2d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $887 2d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $886 2d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $888 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $919 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $920 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $946 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $948 4d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $889 4d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $891 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $891 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $893 6d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $883 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $884 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $968 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $970 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $994 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $996 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $246 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,146 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,147 8d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,245 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.08 · official $248.08 (match) · 541 history records