Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:48:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F7 0xf785…e366 sports 284 markets active 0h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$59 (+1%) realized +$56 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%141W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$71
14 days+$69
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$68
tech 19% −$42
politics 13% +$51
sports 10% +$46
economics 5% +$6
finance 5% −$38
culture 2% +$118
world 2% −$19
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 +5.4% -4.7% 52% 52% +6.6%
≤30d 168 -1.9% -11.2% 47% 47% +0.3%
≤90d 175 +0.1% -9.4% 48% 47% +5.9%
all 279 -3.1% -12.4% 51% 43% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 43% -8.3%
10% -20.8% 39% -17.1%
15% -28.4% 33% -25.1%
20% -35.4% 28% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses141 / 138
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)279 / 284
History coverage241d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Senegal 62¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+61%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+51%)
Norway to score first vs. France? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $5 +$3 +65%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 +$2 +44%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $5 +$2 +48%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$9 +90%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $2 +$1 +31%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $2 +$1 +32%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $2 +$6 +291%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $2 +$2 +79%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +27%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $2 +$4 +180%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $5 +$2 +44%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$8 +158%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $2 +$2 +83%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 +$7 +129%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $2 +$1 +73%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Panama to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $5 +$3 +60%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $3 +$2 +65%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $2 +$1 +70%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +13%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2 +$2 +105%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Norway to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 23 $2 +$2 +83%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $2 +$1 +70%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $1 +$5 +474%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $2 +$1 +55%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $5 +$1 +26%
Iraq to score first vs. France? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $5 22m
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $2 1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $5 1h
Norway to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 21h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 69¢ $2 21h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 21h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $5 21h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $11 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 22h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $2 24h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $5 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 24h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $2 46h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $2 46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 46h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 46h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 46h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 46h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $1 46h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2 47h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 47h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 47h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $2 47h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 47h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.47 · official $23.47 (match) · 625 history records