Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:28:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F7 0xf788…695b crypto 1180 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$325 (+3%) realized +$325 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate73%859W / 321L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$77
14 days+$76
30 days+$178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 -8.5% -17.2% 68% 66% -15.7%
≤30d 1178 +1.1% -8.5% 73% 70% -8.0%
≤90d 1180 +1.3% -8.4% 73% 70% -8.0%
all 1180 +1.3% -8.4% 73% 70% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 70% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 48% -16.8%
15% -25.1% 32% -24.8%
20% -32.5% 19% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$325
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses859 / 321
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1180 / 1180
History coverage49d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1180 Trades
no open positions (323 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$5 +47%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$4 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$5 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$6 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$10 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$4 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$4 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$4 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$7 +65%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$7 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $11 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $11 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $11 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $11 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $11 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $11 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $11 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $11 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $11 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $11 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $11 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $11 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $11 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $11 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $11 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $11 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $11 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $11 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $11 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $11 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $11 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.32 · official $2.86 · 2038 history records