Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F7 0xf78c…e12c other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$279 (+22%) realized +$279 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +202% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +152% what you keep after slip
Net edge+152%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$63
sports 18% +$245
world 0% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+173.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +202.5% +173.7% 50% 50% +9.1%
≤30d 10 +202.5% +173.7% 50% 50% +9.1%
≤90d 10 +202.5% +173.7% 50% 50% +9.1%
all 10 +202.5% +173.7% 50% 50% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +173.7% 50% +9.1%
10% +147.5% 50% -1.3%
15% +123.6% 50% -10.8%
20% +101.7% 30% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +202% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$62 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$279
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $203 +$175 +86%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 +$78 +1521%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $472 −$269 -57%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $333 +$138 +42%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$81 +786%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $201 +$96 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 31¢ $203 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $472 4h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 6h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $333 19h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 20h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 23h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $201 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records