Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:33:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F7 0xf78d…c400 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized −$56 · open +$57
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate83%10W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$407now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days−$3
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$61
sports 2% +$3
finance 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)+26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +42.7% +29.1% 89% 89% +29.5%
≤30d 12 +39.6% +26.3% 83% 83% -8.4%
≤90d 12 +39.6% +26.3% 83% 83% -8.4%
all 12 +39.6% +26.3% 83% 83% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.3% 83% -8.4%
10% +14.2% 67% -17.2%
15% +3.2% 50% -25.2%
20% -6.9% 50% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late +40% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$407
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses10 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage25d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 70¢ 81¢ $350 $407 +$57 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 $0 +21%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 $0 +31%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +29%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +86%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $2 +$2 +102%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $407.45 · official $412.50 · 26 history records