Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf78f…2c89 crypto 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$45 (-23%) realized −$44 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate41%31W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -32.0% -38.5% 40% 32% -39.7%
≤30d 76 -31.5% -38.0% 41% 32% -39.5%
≤90d 76 -31.5% -38.0% 41% 32% -39.5%
all 76 -31.5% -38.0% 41% 32% -39.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.0% 32% -39.5%
10% -44.0% 28% -45.3%
15% -49.4% 21% -50.6%
20% -54.3% 16% -55.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses31 / 45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage15d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -17%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +73%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -49%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -18%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 17m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 18m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 19m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 22m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 24m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 31m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 32m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 36m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 39m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 40m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 43m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 47m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 50m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 51m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 57m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.07 (match) · 210 history records