Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:26:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf790…9c9e other 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%122W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% $0
tech 26% +$1
world 17% +$7
crypto 6% $0
finance 5% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
politics 0% −$3
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 14 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 71 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -8.7%
all 128 -4.2% -13.4% 95% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 0% -9.2%
10% -21.6% 0% -17.9%
15% -29.2% 0% -25.9%
20% -36.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses122 / 6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)128 / 131
History coverage250d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 27 $151 $0 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $140 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 27 $31 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $134 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control O May 31 $4 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in May? May 30 $42 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in May? May 30 $4 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $4 $0 +1%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 26 $125 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 23 $125 +$4 +3%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $125 +$3 +3%
Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $128 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $22 $0 +0%
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 05 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meetin May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in April? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 end of April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch? Apr 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the April Apr 11 $4 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethena dip to $0.00 in March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $260 end of March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 end of March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $330 end of March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $29 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 14h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? BUY No 99¢ $45 18h
Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $151 2d
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 99¢ $31 3d
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $140 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 29d
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $134 29d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $42 30d
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $125 33d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 36d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? BUY Yes 97¢ $125 39d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 41d
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 44d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 97¢ $125 45d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 45d
Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 99¢ $128 47d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 47d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 48d
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? BUY No 99¢ $3 49d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 49d
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 49d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $1 49d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 50d
Will Solana reach $150 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 50d
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control O BUY No 100¢ $4 50d
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? BUY No 99¢ $3 51d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 53d
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 54d
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $47 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.66 · official $102.66 (match) · 260 history records