Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:18:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf793…f683 other 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,139 (-1%) realized −$1,141 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate21%26W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$961per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$674now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$19
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$11
politics 33% −$51
sports 12% −$1,091
culture 2% −$4
economics 2% +$2
world 1% −$34
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 43 -1.5% -10.9% 7% 2% -10.9%
all 125 -0.4% -9.9% 21% 11% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 11% -10.4%
10% -18.5% 11% -19.0%
15% -26.4% 8% -26.8%
20% -33.6% 5% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,079) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$21 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$674
Realized−$1,141
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses26 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage163d
Avg bet$961
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $673 $674 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $581 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $317 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $274 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $1,951 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $3,056 −$5 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $6,959 −$7 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $1,092 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,075 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $1,036 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $799 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 11 $3,254 −$5 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 07 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,551 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,465 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $703 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,128 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,112 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $572 +$1 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,324 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,303 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $2,845 −$3 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $4,629 −$6 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $976 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $3,194 −$5 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $3,140 −$4 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $3,386 −$4 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $1,591 −$2 -0%
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) Apr 29 $1,497 −$1,497 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $2,029 −$5 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,064 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $6,845 −$7 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $1,519 −$2 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $1,362 −$5 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 09 $1,579 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $2,515 −$3 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $608 −$1 -0%
Magic vs. Mavericks Apr 07 $1,048 +$436 +42%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 28 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 28 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 26 $985 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $1,530 −$2 -0%
Will Max Homa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $971 $0 -0%
Will Fred Couples win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $2,047 −$4 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 25 $2,056 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $205 49m
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $206 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $317 3h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $317 5h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $337 21h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $338 26h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $274 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $274 7d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $291 7d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $291 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $271 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $272 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $518 9d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $518 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $673 10d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $816 12d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $817 13d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,090 13d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,092 14d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,074 14d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,075 15d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,035 15d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,036 15d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $798 15d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $799 15d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $971 15d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $973 16d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $1,068 19d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $1,070 20d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,161 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $674.41 · official $674.41 (match) · 443 history records