Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:48:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf794…e9ea other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+4%) realized +$16 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%9W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$27
other 30% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -2.5% -11.8% 19% 19% -7.0%
≤30d 47 -2.5% -11.8% 19% 19% -7.0%
≤90d 47 -2.5% -11.8% 19% 19% -7.0%
all 47 -2.5% -11.8% 19% 19% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 19% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 19% -15.9%
15% -27.9% 19% -24.0%
20% -35.0% 17% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late -62% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$3 · ×4.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses9 / 38
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)47 / 53
History coverage2d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 16¢ 16¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Spain? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Spain? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $37 −$2 -4%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 26 $22 +$29 +130%
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Michael Olise: 2+ assists Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Tijjani Reijnders: 1+ assists Jun 26 $2 +$10 +489%
Donyell Malen: 1+ assists Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Frenkie de Jong: 1+ assists Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ryan Gravenberch: 1+ assists Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ryan Gravenberch: 1+ goals Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ assists Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Deniz Undav: 1+ assists Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Leroy Sané: 1+ assists Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 25 $2 +$7 +323%
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals Jun 25 $2 +$13 +646%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 25 $2 +$7 +344%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 Mexico? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 Mexico? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $31 −$21 -68%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $25 −$7 -28%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $10 −$5 -46%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $14 +$8 +59%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $41 +$19 +48%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 $0 -3%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $10 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $1 +$11 +1115%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 +$8 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $36 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 0.5 SELL Over 55¢ $36 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $37 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Spain? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Spain? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $43 3h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 28¢ $12 4h
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6h
Michael Olise: 2+ assists BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 23¢ $2 7h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 23¢ $7 7h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 25¢ $10 7h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 AND Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals AND Will Net BUY 29¢ $10 23h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 24h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 24h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Ryan Gravenberch: 1+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $1 24h
Ryan Gravenberch: 1+ assists BUY Yes 20¢ $2 25h
Tijjani Reijnders: 1+ assists BUY Yes 18¢ $1 25h
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $2 25h
Frenkie de Jong: 1+ assists BUY Yes 14¢ $1 25h
Donyell Malen: 1+ assists BUY Yes 17¢ $1 25h
Tijjani Reijnders: 1+ assists BUY Yes 15¢ $1 25h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.84 · official $37.84 (match) · 111 history records