Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:03:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf796…465e crypto 502 markets active 8h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$468 (-3%) realized −$468 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate83%417W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days−$79
14 days−$248
30 days−$556
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$588
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -10.3% -18.8% 72% 72% -17.9%
≤30d 450 -2.8% -12.0% 83% 30% -13.0%
≤90d 502 -2.3% -11.6% 83% 30% -13.0%
all 502 -2.3% -11.6% 83% 30% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 30% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 8% -21.4%
15% -27.8% 3% -29.0%
20% -34.9% 2% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$22 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$468
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses417 / 85
Open positions0
Markets (closed)502 / 502
History coverage35d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 502 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$26 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $57 +$13 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$44 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$10 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $32 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $37 +$11 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $32 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $30 −$26 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $32 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $32 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 10 $33 −$17 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $32 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $40 −$25 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 09 $30 −$18 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 08 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 07 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 07 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 07 $24 +$8 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 07 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 07 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 07 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 07 $29 +$17 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 07 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 07 $21 −$17 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 07 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 07 $18 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 06 $22 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 06 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 06 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 06 $24 +$8 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $37 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $70 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $57 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $50 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $62 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $52 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $7 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $51 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $30 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $42 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $32 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $32 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $32 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $32 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $35 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $47 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $37 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $32 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $32 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1004 history records